The logic of natural selection
Natural selection follows from a few observations that can be checked in real populations:
flowchart TD A["Heritable variation exists in a population"] --> B["More offspring are produced than the environment can support"] B --> C["Competition for limited resources"] C --> D["Individuals with favourable traits survive and reproduce more"] D --> E["They pass on their alleles"] E --> F["Favourable alleles become more common over generations"]
Sources of variation
Variation must be heritable to matter. Its sources are mutation (the only source of new alleles), meiosis (independent assortment and crossing over make new allele combinations) and sexual reproduction (random fertilisation combines alleles from two parents). Variation that comes only from the environment, such as size from diet, is not passed on.
Selection pressures
A selection pressure is any environmental factor that affects which individuals survive and reproduce.
- Abiotic factors: temperature, water availability, salinity, soil pH.
- Biotic factors: predators, pathogens, competitors, food availability.
Competition is greatest when populations overproduce, which is common: many fish and plants produce huge numbers of offspring, and most die young. Fitness in biology means reproductive success, not strength.
Sexual selection
Some traits spread because they improve mating success rather than survival. Females may choose mates with bright colours or elaborate displays, as in birds of paradise or guppies, and males may compete directly using antlers or size. These traits can even reduce survival, but they persist because they increase the number of offspring.
Modelling selection
Simple models help show selection: computer simulations, or class activities where "predators" pick coloured beads against a background. Classic field studies include guppies in Trinidad, where populations with fewer predators evolved brighter males over a few generations after being moved to new streams. Models must be interpreted with care: they simplify reality and must be tested against data.
Gene pools and allele frequency (HL)
A gene pool is all the alleles of all genes in an interbreeding population. Evolution can be measured as a change in allele frequency, the proportion of all copies of a gene that are a particular allele.
Patterns of selection (HL)
| Type | Which phenotypes are favoured | Effect on distribution |
|---|---|---|
| Directional | One extreme | Mean shifts in one direction |
| Stabilising | Intermediate | Mean unchanged, range narrows |
| Disruptive | Both extremes | Distribution can split into two peaks |
Examples: antibiotic resistance spreading in bacteria (directional), human birth mass clustering around a middle value (stabilising), and beak sizes favoured at two extremes when two seed sizes are common (disruptive).
Hardy-Weinberg and artificial selection (HL)
For a gene with two alleles at frequencies p and q:
\[p + q = 1 \qquad p^2 + 2pq + q^2 = 1\]
where \(p^2\) and \(q^2\) are the homozygous genotype frequencies and \(2pq\) the heterozygote frequency. The equation predicts genotype frequencies in a population that is not evolving. Its assumptions are a large population, random mating, no mutation, no migration and no selection. If observed frequencies differ from predictions, one of these assumptions is being broken. Start calculations from the recessive phenotype, since its frequency equals \(q^2\).
In artificial selection, humans choose which individuals breed, so the selection pressure is deliberate. It has produced many crop varieties and domestic breeds and works on the same principle of heritable variation.
Common mistakes
- Saying organisms "adapt because they need to" or mutate in response to the environment.
- Equating fitness with strength or speed rather than reproductive success.
- In Hardy-Weinberg questions, taking the square root of the dominant phenotype frequency. Use the recessive phenotype.
- Forgetting the heterozygote term is 2pq, not pq.
Exam tips
- Explain natural selection as a chain: variation, overproduction, competition, differential survival and reproduction, inheritance, change in allele frequency.
- Calculate with Hardy-Weinberg: find q from the recessive phenotype, then p = 1 − q, then each genotype frequency; show all steps.
- Distinguish the three patterns of selection with a sketch-style description of each graph.
- Use the word "allele" correctly: selection changes allele frequencies in the population, not genes in an individual.

